Ju noted that Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains bullish. Key support levels are strong at around $89,000 and $85,000. On-chain data shows a major breakout is likely. This pattern is like the instability seen in August 2023. Meanwhile, industry experts like Samson Cut have raised concerns about possible market control. Bitcoin’s price has been trading in a tight range despite strong demand. Experts expect BTC to hit between $160,000 and $180,000 by 2025, even with some short-term uncertainty.

BTC’s bull cycle isn’t finished.

Bitcoin’s price may fall to $77,000. But, this won’t hurt its upward trend, says CryptoQuant Chief Ki Youthful Ju. Ki argued in a series of posts on X that a 30% drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high would still match historical trends. This means the bull cycle is still intact, even with recent price stagnation. He believes that Bitcoin aimed for $100,000 recently, but the trend is still bullish. Higher price levels are likely to appear throughout 2025.

Ki eased concerns about a bear market by explaining that Bitcoin’s value could soar. Still, past trends show that even after a big drop, the growth would continue. A drop to $77,000 will still keep BTC/USD above its previous cycle’s record high. This is a key support level for traders wanting to set a strong market floor.

He highlighted the total expense bases of key financial backer groups. He noted that US spot Bitcoin ETF investors currently have an average buy-in of $89,000. This level has acted as support since November. New Bitcoin whales have a similar entry point. This makes it a key area for a possible reversal if the market drops.

ETF backers maintained a higher cost basis. In contrast, traders on Binance have a lower breakeven point of $59,000. If Bitcoin drops below $57,000, miners will face losses. This level often signals the start of bear markets. We saw this in May 2022, March 2020, and November 2018. As per Ki, remaining over these levels is basic for Bitcoin’s bullish direction.

Another investigation from CryptoQuant also supports the idea of price increases this cycle. Examiner Timo Oinonen called Bitcoin’s post-splitting convention “incomplete.” He observed that since last April’s block reward cut, Bitcoin’s price has risen a lot. Oinonen believes this pattern will follow past cycles. He expects a market dip in May, then a quiet summer, and a rebound in the final quarter. He pointed out that the positive irregularity in Q4 happens often. This pattern appeared in years like 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024. This makes a more profound rectification impossible in the near term.

Bitcoin’s price goes up and down, but clear patterns and key support levels show that the market is still positive. Short-term changes might worry investors. But, long-term holders and institutions still feel optimistic about Bitcoin’s fundamentals.

BTC Value Activity Likewise Mirrors August 2023

Bitcoin’s price movements suggest a possible purge. On-chain analysis shows a return to volatility like we saw in August 2023. CryptoQuant research shows that BTC/USD is “ready” for a big move. High levels of volatility say that traders need a breakout.

Around then, Bitcoin encountered a sharp drop before beginning a multi-month upswing. Recent readings show Bitcoin at 62 on the daily graph and 72 on the weekly graph. This suggests that Bitcoin is due for a clear move in either direction. BTC’s 90-day range has fluctuated by about 16% between highs and lows. This supports the idea of a potential breakout.

Percival observed that before the 2023 Bitcoin convention, dealers kept their positions steady. This happened during a period of low market volatility. This type of liquidity could be forming again. It may lead to a quick move before Bitcoin continues its broader trend. Throughout the course of recent months, the Roughness File showed many peaks. In December, Percival used the record to foresee a chilling period for Bitcoin as it approached the $110,000 level.

Percival pointed out a key level to watch. This could indicate possible downside targets if Bitcoin follows last year’s trend. He noted that the temporary holder cost basis is at $92,000. If Bitcoin drops below that level, the 200-day moving average at $85,000 might provide stronger support. He warned investors that fake breakouts often happen in strong markets. The market tends to shake out traders who bet on early breakouts before returning to its usual path.

These studies show that Bitcoin could have a sharp price rise soon. This chance of growth seems to be increasing as it continues its upward trend.

Is someone smothering Bitcoin’s value?

Bitcoin’s price activity is raising concerns about possible market manipulation. It keeps trading within a narrow range, even with institutional money coming in. BTC has been stuck between $92,400 and $106,500 since Dec. 18, 2024. It broke out to $109,000 for a short time after US President Donald Trump’s announcement on Jan. 20.

Samson Cut, President of Jan3 and founder of Pixelmatic, thinks Bitcoin is stagnant. He believes this is due to cost concealment. At Agreement Hong Kong 2025, Cut noted that the resource’s steady, sideways growth appears artificial rather than a natural mix.

Despite stable costs, industry experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin in 2025. They expect prices to reach between $160,000 and $180,000. US spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing more inflows. Institutions, such as Michael Saylor’s Method, are buying more Bitcoin daily than is being mined. This shows that demand for BTC is still very strong. Cut suggested that if Bitcoin’s price doesn’t respond to these good signs, then big selling might be happening.

In earlier years, selling pressure came from liquidations and rebuilding events. But, that phase has nearly concluded. As fewer vendors get involved, Bitcoin’s value is rising. This increase fuels speculation about hidden market forces that affect its short-term changes.